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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Girona 1-3 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.36 xG and Real Betis 1.43 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Real Betis attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 36% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 39%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Real Betis 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.67 PPG, Real Betis 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights