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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Girona and Oviedo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona and Oviedo finished level at 3-3 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.10 xG and Oviedo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oviedo outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.73 / defence 1.30 against Oviedo attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 34% | Draw 31% | Oviedo 35%, with Oviedo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 56%, Oviedo 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Oviedo's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 0.67 PPG, Oviedo 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oviedo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights