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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Levante run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levante beat Girona 0-4 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.42 xG and Levante 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Girona fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Levante outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.76 / defence 1.33 against Levante attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 44% | Draw 27% | Levante 30%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 50%, Levante 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levante's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 0.25 PPG, Levante 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Girona shipped 4 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights