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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Girona and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona and Getafe finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.26 xG and Getafe 1.02 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 41% | Draw 30% | Getafe 29%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 55%, Getafe 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights