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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Girona 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Girona 1-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.23 xG and Getafe 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.18 / defence 1.14 against Getafe attack 0.98 / defence 0.73, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 62%, Getafe 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights