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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Getafe 1-2 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.03 xG and Villarreal 0.98 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.80 / defence 0.82 against Villarreal attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 36% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 33%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 35%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.20 PPG, Villarreal 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights