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Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Getafe 1-2 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 0.99 xG and Real Sociedad 0.92 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.75 / defence 0.88 against Real Sociedad attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 34% | Draw 35% | Real Sociedad 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Real Sociedad 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.12 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights