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Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Osasuna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Osasuna 1-0 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.24 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 31%, Osasuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Osasuna's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.20 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights