Getafe 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Getafe at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Getafe vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Osasuna at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's home record at Estadio Coliseum: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Osasuna's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Getafe's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Getafe hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Osasuna, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Osasuna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Getafe and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 44% versus Osasuna 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 37% | Osasuna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.40 xG and Osasuna 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.808 / defence 0.846 | Osasuna attack 0.880 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.028. Data: 46 Getafe games / 46 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 49% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 17%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Osasuna 5.88. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Getafe dominate the H2H record, yet Osasuna are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 30% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 49% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Getafe 1.40 / Osasuna 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.808 / def 0.846 | Osasuna attack 0.880 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Getafe (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Osasuna xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Osasuna kick off?
Getafe vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Getafe 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Getafe vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Osasuna part of?
Getafe vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 49% chance of winning, Osasuna a 17% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Getafe and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
Record (6 meetings): Getafe 4W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in?
Getafe (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.81) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
49%
2.06
34%
2.91
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.17
0.77
Osasuna xG
2.06
49%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
23.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Getafe and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Getafe and 0.77 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 17D 18L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Getafe on 1.09 PPG, Osasuna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 6W 5D 11L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.24 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Osasuna away?
Getafe's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.55 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Getafe
2
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 6, Osasuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Getafe 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Osasuna?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 36%, Osasuna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Getafe) and 59% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 36% of games; Osasuna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Getafe's recent matches and 54% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Getafe's recent games and 59% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Osasuna tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.40 xG and Osasuna 0.77 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 49% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 17%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 37%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.09 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.