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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Getafe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mallorca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Mallorca 3-1 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.06 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Getafe beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.66 / defence 0.91 against Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 39% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 29%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 30%, Mallorca 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.19 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights