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Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Getafe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Getafe 0-1 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.11 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 0.79 against Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 41% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 28%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 31%, Mallorca 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mallorca's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.07 PPG, Mallorca 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights