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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Getafe and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Coliseum, Regular Season - 7, as Getafe and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.56 xG and Levante 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Levante attack 1.08 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 44% | Draw 28% | Levante 28%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 50%, Levante 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Levante's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Getafe arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights