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Las Palmas cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Getafe.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Las Palmas beat Getafe 1-3 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.26 xG and Las Palmas 0.93 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Las Palmas outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Las Palmas attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 44% | Draw 29% | Las Palmas 27%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Las Palmas win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 37%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Las Palmas's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.21 PPG, Las Palmas 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights