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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Girona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Girona 2-1 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.26 xG and Girona 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against Girona attack 0.91 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 43% | Draw 29% | Girona 28%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 35%, Girona 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.17 PPG, Girona 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights