🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Espanyol 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Espanyol 1-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.57 xG and Espanyol 0.70 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 0.81 against Espanyol attack 0.72 / defence 1.40, drawn from 53/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 58% | Draw 25% | Espanyol 17%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 7%, Espanyol 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Espanyol's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 0.86 PPG, Espanyol 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights