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Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Elche 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Elche 1-0 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.30 xG and Elche 0.87 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Elche landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Elche attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 47% | Draw 29% | Elche 25%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 38%, Elche 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Elche's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.31 PPG, Elche 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights