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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Getafe 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Getafe 1-2 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.14 xG and Celta Vigo 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Celta Vigo attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 29% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 46%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 37%, Celta Vigo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.13 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights