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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Getafe and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe and Alaves finished level at 1-1 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.09 xG and Alaves 0.97 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Getafe 37% | Draw 33% | Alaves 31%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 37%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Getafe's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Getafe 1.19 PPG, Alaves 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights