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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Espanyol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Espanyol 0-2 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.30 xG and Villarreal 1.28 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Espanyol fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Villarreal attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 37% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 36%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 43%, Villarreal 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Villarreal's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights