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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Espanyol and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.42 xG and Valencia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Valencia attack 0.69 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 50% | Draw 27% | Valencia 23%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 56%, Valencia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 0.88 PPG, Valencia 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights