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Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Sevilla 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Sevilla 2-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.40 xG and Sevilla 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Sevilla attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 40% | Draw 26% | Sevilla 34%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 42%, Sevilla 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.20 PPG, Sevilla 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights