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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 38, as Espanyol and Real Sociedad drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.24 xG and Real Sociedad 1.25 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Real Sociedad attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 36% | Draw 27% | Real Sociedad 37%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 45%, Real Sociedad 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.16 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights