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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Espanyol 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Espanyol 1-2 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.14 xG and Real Betis 1.30 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Real Betis attack 1.20 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 32% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 40%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 39%, Real Betis 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights