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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Oviedo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Espanyol and Oviedo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.75 xG and Oviedo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Oviedo attack 0.85 / defence 1.40, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 51% | Draw 24% | Oviedo 25%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 54%, Oviedo 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Oviedo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights