Espanyol vs Osasuna – Match Report

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Stalemate at Espanyol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol and Osasuna finished level at 0-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.56 xG and Osasuna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Espanyol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.96 / defence 1.19 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 45% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 30%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 60%, Osasuna 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Osasuna's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights