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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Mallorca 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Mallorca 3-2 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.37 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Mallorca attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 49% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 23%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 42%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.20 PPG, Mallorca 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights