Espanyol 2-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Espanyol vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Espanyol and Mallorca meet at RCDE Stadium in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at RCDE Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.92 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.88) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Espanyol have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Mallorca in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Espanyol 2W, Mallorca 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Espanyol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 50% versus Mallorca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 50% | Mallorca 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.21 xG and Mallorca 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.992 / defence 1.286 | Mallorca attack 1.090 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.033. Data: 8 Espanyol games / 46 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 28% | Draw 33% | Mallorca 39%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Mallorca 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 75% | Mallorca 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 28% | Draw 33% | Mallorca 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Espanyol 1.21 / Mallorca 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.992 / def 1.286 | Mallorca attack 1.090 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Mallorca xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Mallorca kick off?
Espanyol vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Mallorca?
Espanyol 2 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Espanyol vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Mallorca part of?
Espanyol vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 28% chance of winning, Mallorca a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Espanyol and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Mallorca?
Record (4 meetings): Espanyol 2W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Espanyol and Mallorca in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Espanyol's attack rating (0.99) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (1.09x) against Espanyol's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
28%
3.57
33%
3.05
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.65
1.45
Mallorca xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.45 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Espanyol have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 1D 5L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Espanyol.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.75 PPG overall record — Mallorca travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Espanyol are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Mallorca in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Mallorca away?
Mallorca's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.50 PPG; Mallorca away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Mallorca in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Espanyol
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Mallorca?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Mallorca 2-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Mallorca?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 75%, Mallorca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Espanyol and 50% for Mallorca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Espanyol's games and 50% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Espanyol vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Espanyol's matches and 50% of Mallorca's.
Do Espanyol and Mallorca tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Mallorca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Mallorca 2-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.21 xG and Mallorca 1.45 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against Mallorca attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 28% | Draw 33% | Mallorca 39%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Espanyol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 50%, Mallorca 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Espanyol winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.