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Stalemate at Espanyol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol and Levante finished level at 0-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.44 xG and Levante 1.08 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Espanyol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Levante landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Levante attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 45% | Draw 26% | Levante 28%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 53%, Levante 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Levante's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.19 PPG, Levante 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights