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Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Getafe 1-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 0.86 xG and Getafe 1.34 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against Getafe attack 1.11 / defence 0.77, drawn from 30/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 24% | Draw 28% | Getafe 48%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Espanyol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 43%, Getafe 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Getafe's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.17 PPG, Getafe 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights