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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Espanyol and Celta Vigo drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 0.87 xG and Celta Vigo 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against Celta Vigo attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 25% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 43%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 43%, Celta Vigo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.25 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights