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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Espanyol and Athletic Club drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.09 xG and Athletic Club 1.31 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Athletic Club attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 31% | Draw 28% | Athletic Club 41%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 48%, Athletic Club 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights