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Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Espanyol 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Espanyol 1-2 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.16 xG and Alaves 0.83 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 42% | Draw 33% | Alaves 25%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 41%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.29 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights