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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Elche and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche and Real Sociedad finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.23 xG and Real Sociedad 0.80 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.80 / defence 0.79 against Real Sociedad attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 46% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 23%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 36%, Real Sociedad 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.27 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights