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Stalemate at Elche's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche and Osasuna finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.37 xG and Osasuna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Elche fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Osasuna attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 39% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 33%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 56%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Osasuna's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.04 PPG, Osasuna 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights