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Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.60 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 49% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 24%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 61%, Mallorca 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 0.93 PPG, Mallorca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights