🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Barcelona cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Elche.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Elche 1-3 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.59 xG and Barcelona 1.86 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Barcelona outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Barcelona attack 1.55 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 32% | Draw 24% | Barcelona 44%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 52%, Barcelona 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Barcelona's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights