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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Sevilla 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Sevilla 3-2 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.40 xG and Sevilla 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sevilla outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 27% | Sevilla 27%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 58%, Sevilla 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.21 PPG, Sevilla 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights