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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo and Real Betis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 6, as Celta Vigo and Real Betis drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.34 xG and Real Betis 1.37 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Real Betis attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 26% | Real Betis 38%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 60%, Real Betis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.40 PPG, Real Betis 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights