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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Mallorca 2-0 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mallorca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 53%, Mallorca 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Celta Vigo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Mallorca's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.44 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights