Celta Vigo vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Levante travel to to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Celta Vigo at this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levante are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 1 for Levante and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Levante in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 61% versus Levante 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 44% | Levante 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.40 xG and Levante 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.817 / defence 1.259 | Levante attack 0.769 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.138. Data: 41 Celta Vigo games / 41 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 44% | Draw 27% | Levante 30%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Levante 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 44% | Draw 27% | Levante 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Celta Vigo 1.40 / Levante 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.817 / def 1.259 | Levante attack 0.769 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Levante xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Levante kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Levante part of?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 44% chance of winning, Levante a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Celta Vigo and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 1 | Levante 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.82x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.75
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.50
1.10
Levante xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.10 for Levante, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 14W 13D 14L from 41 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 19L across 41 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.34 PPG, Levante on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Levante away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.10 PPG; Levante away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 62%, Levante 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 48% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 43% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 48% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Levante tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levante in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.