Celta Vigo 4-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos plays host to Celta Vigo versus Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Celta Vigo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Celta Vigo at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Las Palmas (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Las Palmas's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Celta Vigo's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Las Palmas's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Celta Vigo, 1 for Las Palmas and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Las Palmas winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 55% versus Las Palmas 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 48% | Las Palmas 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.09 xG and Las Palmas 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.721 / defence 0.916 | Las Palmas attack 0.831 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.079. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Celta Vigo games / 31 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 41% | Draw 32% | Las Palmas 27%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Las Palmas 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 40% | Las Palmas 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 41% | Draw 32% | Las Palmas 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Celta Vigo 1.09 / Las Palmas 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.721 / def 0.916 | Las Palmas attack 0.831 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Las Palmas xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Celta Vigo 4 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas part of?
Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 41% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Celta Vigo and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Las Palmas?
Record (1 meetings): Celta Vigo 0W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Las Palmas in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Las Palmas (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Celta Vigo's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.83x) against Celta Vigo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.10
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
1.91
0.82
Las Palmas xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.82 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 6W 10D 15L from 31 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 14L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.19 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 3W 5D 7L from 15 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.94 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Las Palmas away?
Las Palmas's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.93 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-1 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Las Palmas have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Celta Vigo 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Las Palmas?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 40%, Las Palmas 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Celta Vigo and 27% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 47% of games; Las Palmas in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 27% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Las Palmas.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Las Palmas 4-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.09 xG and Las Palmas 0.82 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Las Palmas attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 41% | Draw 32% | Las Palmas 27%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 48%, Las Palmas 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.90 PPG, Las Palmas 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.