Celta Vigo 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Celta Vigo welcome Almeria to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Celta Vigo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Celta Vigo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Celta Vigo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almeria in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Celta Vigo have won 1, Almeria 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Almeria in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 55% and Almeria 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 48% | Almeria 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.33 xG and Almeria 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.739 / defence 1.027 | Almeria attack 0.975 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.133. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Celta Vigo games / 64 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 38% | Draw 33% | Almeria 29%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Almeria 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Almeria 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 38% | Draw 33% | Almeria 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Celta Vigo 1.33 / Almeria 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.739 / def 1.027 | Almeria attack 0.975 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Almeria xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Almeria kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Almeria?
Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Almeria part of?
Celta Vigo vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 38% chance of winning, Almeria a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Celta Vigo and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Almeria?
Record (3 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Almeria in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Almeria (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Celta Vigo's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
38%
2.62
33%
3.03
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Almeria xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.13 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 15W 19D 30L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria's form line: 11W 17D 36L from 64 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.00 PPG, Almeria on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 1W 7D 24L from 32 away games — 0.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.16 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 66%.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Almeria in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 15W 19D 30L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 17D 36L in their last 64 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Almeria away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.16 PPG; Almeria away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Almeria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Celta Vigo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Almeria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Celta Vigo 1-0 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Almeria?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 53%, Almeria 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Celta Vigo) and 66% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Almeria in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Celta Vigo's games and 72% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Celta Vigo vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 66% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Almeria tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Almeria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Almeria 1-0 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.33 xG and Almeria 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Almeria attack 0.97 / defence 1.30, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 38% | Draw 33% | Almeria 29%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 48%, Almeria 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Almeria's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG, Almeria 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.