Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 16 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Celta Vigo haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Alaves haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.40 for Alaves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Alaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 58% versus Alaves 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 55% | Alaves 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.60 xG and Alaves 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.044 / defence 1.018 | Alaves attack 0.884 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.147. Data: 38 Celta Vigo games / 38 Alaves games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 26% | Alaves 24%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Alaves 4.17. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 60% | Alaves 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 26% | Alaves 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.60 / Alaves 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.044 / def 1.018 | Alaves attack 0.884 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Alaves xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Alaves kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo 2 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Alaves part of?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 50% chance of winning, Alaves a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 1 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.88x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.83
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.63
1.03
Alaves xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
5%
20.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.03 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 11D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. Celta Vigo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (12W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. Alaves haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.21 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Celta Vigo's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Pre-Season
Alaves
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Alaves in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Alaves have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Alaves away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.26 PPG; Alaves away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Alaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Alaves?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 53%, Alaves 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Celta Vigo) and 32% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 37% of games; Alaves in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 37% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 32% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Alaves tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Alaves in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Alaves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Alaves 2-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.60 xG and Alaves 1.03 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 50% | Draw 26% | Alaves 24%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 55%, Alaves 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.08 PPG, Alaves 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.