Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cadiz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Mallorca in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cadiz 1W, Mallorca 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Mallorca — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 37% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 27% | Mallorca 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.01 xG and Mallorca 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.746 / defence 0.967 | Mallorca attack 0.717 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.094. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Cadiz games / 70 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 40% | Draw 34% | Mallorca 26%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Mallorca 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Mallorca's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cadiz are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 30% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 40% | Draw 34% | Mallorca 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Cadiz 1.01 / Mallorca 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.746 / def 0.967 | Mallorca attack 0.717 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Mallorca xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Mallorca kick off?
Cadiz vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Cadiz vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Mallorca part of?
Cadiz vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 40% chance of winning, Mallorca a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cadiz and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Cadiz and Mallorca in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.75x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.72x) against Cadiz's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.95
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.77
0.76
Mallorca xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.76 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 70 games, going 14W 25D 31L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.16 PPG from 70 outings (20W 21D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cadiz against 1.16 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 11W 13D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.69 points per game from 35 outings (5W 9D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.90 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 70 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 14W 25D 31L in their last 70 games (0.96 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 20W 21D 29L in their last 70 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Mallorca away?
Cadiz's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.31 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Mallorca in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Mallorca?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 34%, Mallorca 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Cadiz and 37% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 43% of games; Mallorca in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Cadiz's recent matches and 40% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Cadiz's recent games and 37% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Mallorca tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.01 xG and Mallorca 0.76 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Mallorca attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 40% | Draw 34% | Mallorca 26%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 27%, Mallorca 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.96 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.