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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Barcelona 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Barcelona 2-3 at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.10 xG and Villarreal 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.64 / defence 0.99 against Villarreal attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 59% | Draw 21% | Villarreal 21%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Villarreal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 65%, Villarreal 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Villarreal's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.58. Form was overturned, with Villarreal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Barcelona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights