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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Barcelona cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Elche.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Elche 3-1 at Olímpic Lluís Companys, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.33 xG and Elche 0.83 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.50 / defence 0.87 against Elche attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 71% | Draw 18% | Elche 12%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 90%, Elche 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Elche's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights