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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Barcelona edge out Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barcelona beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 2.50 xG and Alaves 1.39 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Barcelona fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Alaves landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.56 / defence 1.05 against Alaves attack 1.16 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barcelona 62% | Draw 18% | Alaves 20%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 68%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barcelona's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alaves's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights