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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sat 13 Sep 2025

20:00

Venue

Metropolitano Stadium

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico Madrid Win

47%

Atletico Madrid

2.15

26%

Draw

3.90

28%

Villarreal

3.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.0%

Home win

2 – 1

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.51

Atletico Madrid xG

Total xG

2.62

1.11

Villarreal xG

47%
26%
28%
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal

2.15

47%

Home win

3.90

26%

Draw

3.60

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.92

48%

BTTS No

2.09

Clean Sheet

33%

Atletico Madrid

3.02

22%

Villarreal

4.54

Win to Nil

15%

Atletico Madrid

6.49

6%

Villarreal

16.33

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.3 8.1 4.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
1 11.0 12.2 6.7 2.5 0.7 0.2
2 8.3 9.2 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 4.2 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.512
λ Away (xG) 1.106
Total xG 2.618
League avg home goals 1.354
League avg away goals 1.144
Atletico Madrid attack strength 1.157
Atletico Madrid defence strength 0.946
Villarreal attack strength 1.022
Villarreal defence strength 0.965
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41