Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico Madrid's attack at 1.17x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.90x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.41
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.60
0.81
Sevilla xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
36.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.81 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.