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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Levante 3-1 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.09 xG and Levante 1.01 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.48 / defence 0.84 against Levante attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 62% | Draw 21% | Levante 17%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 36%, Levante 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Levante's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Levante (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights